India's Lok Sabha Elections: No enthusiasm among voters in the first phase

The polls of Bihar, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, the Hindi-speaking regions that are considered decisive in Indian politics, have surprised even the election pundits. Voter turnout has dropped unexpectedly in all three provinces. In the first phase of elections held last Friday, voting was held in 4 Lok Sabha constituencies of Bihar, all 5 of Uttarakhand and 8 of Uttar Pradesh. Bihar got the lowest vote share of only 48.50 percent. Similarly, 54.80 percent of voters participated in Uttarakhand and 59.66 percent in Uttar Pradesh.

Election analyst Professor Sanjay Kumar attributes the low voter turnout to voter apathy. "The kind of enthusiasm that should be seen in the voters was found to be low," he said, "but it cannot be interpreted as an anti-government mood." Instead, he thinks that the psychology of why a particular party is winning in the area where it is winning may have worked. Likewise, he believes that the same mindset may have worked even if the voters of the other party did not go to vote. "One side is more excited and the other side is disappointed, but the turnout may have been low," he said.

Kumar, a professor associated with the Center for the Study Developing Society (CSDS), said that the lack of campaigning by political parties may have affected the voters. "It is not possible to draw conclusions from the first phase of the election," he added. He commented that it is not possible to see the impact. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are confident as they win the election for the third time. Modi has given the slogan 'Abki Bar, Char Sayy Par' in this election. Out of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, Modi has been claiming that the BJP alone will win 370 seats and the BJP-led NDA coalition will win 400 seats.

In Bihar's southern part of Aurangabad, Gaya, Nawada and Jamui Lok Sabha constituencies, there were no encouraging votes. Bihar has a history of low turnout compared to most other states. However, Professor Kumar says that this time only 45 percent drop in the first stage is the subject of the study. Similarly, 51.56 percent voting in Aurangabad, 49.51 percent in Gaya, 43.21 percent in Nawada and 50.11 percent in Jamui.

Ajay Kumar, a local journalist from Nawada district, which has the lowest voter turnout, says that the choice of candidates, the lack of activity of political parties and the preparation of the Election Commission/Administration are all reasons for the lack of attraction among voters. Since a long time, the voters here have been asking for local candidates to be nominated, but like in the past, BJP brought in candidates from outside this time as well. On the other hand, the opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal nominated a local candidate, but did not choose a popular one among the people, he said, "The first reason is that the candidates from both sides could not attract support." There were no heavy weight candidates like in the past.'

Journalist Ajay said that the voter turnout may have been low due to the 'overconfidence' seen among the pro-ruling NDA voters. And, his analysis is that this will damage the NDA itself. Supporters of the ruling NDA coalition went to the polling stations in small numbers because of the prevailing mentality that they are winning among the voters. It is estimated that the benefit will reach the opposition party,' he said, 'The experience of not meeting the voters for 5/5 years is also a sign that the search for local candidates has started.'' He said that it was seen. Win or lose cannot be said now. However, it has been shown that the opposition candidates will benefit from the low turnout,' he said, 'There has been a decrease in the turnout in the neighboring districts of Aungabad, Gaya or Jamui as well.' Ekthari's analysis is that voter participation has decreased. Journalist Ajay does not consider it as an important reason. He argues that if the issues, parties and candidates are attractive, the weather will not affect the voters. Voter turnout in all the 8 Lok Sabhas of Uttar Pradesh has also decreased compared to the previous elections. Although the turnout exceeded 60 percent in Saharanpur and Pilibhat, the voter turnout in other areas is less than that.

The voters of the famous Muzaffarnagar Lok Sabha constituency also did not show enthusiasm in the election. Local journalist Madan Balian said that the voter turnout was 8 percent less than in 2019. Only 55 percent of the vote has fallen there. Journalist Balian said that voters were surprisingly not enthusiastic about this election. Muslims, Jats and Dalit communities are in abundance here. He says that the absence of a 'heavy weight' candidate has not attracted the voters. Also, the election would have been interesting when the BJP and Rashtriya Lok Dal were competitors in the region. This time Rashtriya Lok Dal has allied with BJP. In 2019, the party challenged the BJP by forming an alliance with Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samajwadi Party. Now the Samajwadi Party has formed an alliance with the Congress, while the Bahujan Samajwadi Party is alone in the election field. Journalist Balian said that there is a triangular competition in many places in Uttar Pradesh and the same situation is also seen in Muzaffarnagar.

His analysis is that the voters did not reach the polling stations due to the message that BJP is winning the elections, busyness of farmers to import wheat, wedding season etc. In his experience, it seems that the ruling NDA alliance will suffer more from the low voter turnout. Even in Bijnor of Uttar Pradesh, only 55 percent votes have fallen. Similarly, 52.42 percent voting was done in Rampur, 57.65 percent in Muradabad, 58 percent in Nagina and Kairana.

The polling has also declined in the hilly region of Uttarakhand. There are total 5 constituencies. In all, around 55 percent voting has been done. Compared to 2014 and 2019, 8 percent votes have fallen. 60 percent of the votes have fallen in the Nainital Udyamsingh Nagar constituency. Polling in Haridwar is 10 percent less than last time (59 percent). 52 percent voting in Tehri Garhwal, 50 percent in Garhwal and 46 percent in Almora. In the previous two elections, BJP had won all these constituencies. Rakesh Khandudi, who is the Uttarakhand bureau chief of Amar Ujala Patrika, believes that the growing distance between the voters and the candidate and the political party is the main reason for the lack of voting like the previous time.

'The way of asking for votes is changing, campaigns are focused on social sites like YouTube/Facebook. It has reduced the direct dialogue between candidates and voters,' he said, 'It has reduced the attractiveness of voting.' He said that apart from treating Prime Minister Modi's rallies and meetings as propaganda in the BJP, the mobilization of the party's organization at the local level does not seem to be effective. According to him, even the Congress could not reach the booth level. According to his analysis, voting participation has decreased due to these reasons. He believes that the impact of the decrease in voting will affect both the BJP and the Congress, but it may affect the Congress more.

In some places in Uttarakhand, there are reports of local people boycotting voting despite the lack of necessary infrastructure such as roads, electricity, water, schools, and health. In Maharashtra and Rajasthan too, votes fell less than in the past. There was zero voting in 6 districts of Nagaland. Locals boycotted the polls demanding a separate autonomous administration. In Manipur, which has been plagued by violence for a long time, polling has been good despite some violent incidents. Tripura has voted the most. There was 81.51 percent voting in one seat. In all the 39 constituencies of Tamil Nadu, 68 percent votes were cast and 72 percent votes were cast in Assam. In three regions of West Bengal, 78 percent of votes have fallen.