Kathmandu Post

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Winter crop yield forecast to be ‘modest’

KATHMANDU, FEB 03 -
Although the country had a bumper summer harvest, winter yield is forecast to be ‘modest’, due to cold wave, petroleum shortage and unavailability of chemical fertilisers, according to a preliminary estimation of the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives’.

A separate assessment report prepared jointly by the World Food Programme, Food and Agriculture Organisation and the ministry also showed that the cold wave, occurred during the first half of December 2011, partially affected potatoes and other vegetables in the Tarai belt.

The unavailability of fertilisers at the time of plantation and lack of irrigation facilities have also been blamed for the modest production of winter cereal crops like wheat and barley this year.

Although the winter production may not match that of summer, the good news is that the production will remain ‘normal’, in fact ‘good’, in both Tarai and Hill belts, supported by rain and snowfall in January 2012.

Although the report has projected a ‘good’ wheat output this winter, ministry officials estimate a slight fall in production, as plantation could not be done completely in Tarai due to inadequate supply of fertilisers and petroleum shortage. Wheat is Nepal’s second major cereal crop after paddy.

“Shortage of diesel for the last six months has affected irrigation in the Tarai belt,” Ministry spokesperson Hari Dahal said, adding that farmers were compelled to abandon some portion of land.

As a majority of farmers are dependent on shallow tube well and diesel-run pump sets to irrigate land, production of wheat is projected to remain below expectation. “Inadequate supply of fertilisers is another reason for this.” Around 60 percent of the wheat is produced in Tarai, while the remaining in hills and mountains.

However, according to Dahal, the output of winter vegetables and pulses has been estimated to be ‘good’ this year.

The report also said that the outlook for 2011-12 of winter crops—wheat, barley, vegetables and lentils, among others—will be ‘good’, thanks to the prolonged monsoon which has contributed to maintaining soil moisture for a long time, resulting in timely plantation.

“Moreover, the timely winter rain (snowfall in the mountain areas) is expected to contribute to timely germination and growth of winter crops,” the report said.

Based on a field work that was carried out from December 18, 2011 to January 3, 2012, the report said the Eastern Development Region was affected by the cold wave, resulting in the loss of some crops.

In the Central and Western Development regions, the outlook of the winter crops is so far ‘good’, with a few exceptions like lack of irrigation, unavailability of fertilisers at the time of plantation and germination and a continuous rise of input prices.

In the Mid-Western Region, the report said despite a decline in production of summer crops, outlook of winter crops is ‘good’ and expected normal harvest.

With a significant rise in summer production last year, the report says the food security situation in the country this year will be stable. The overall summer production increased by 10.8 percent—paddy and maize production jumping by 13.7 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively.

The trade data for the first quarter of 2011-12, as mentioned in the report, shows that the import of cereal grains declined by 5.3 percent compared to the same period last year.

Posted on: 2012-02-04 10:37

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