Final reflections
Despite a breakthrough on November 1 last year, which rekindled hope for an early resolution, Nepal’s peace process remains stuck amid final recalibrations and realignments of positions and policies of major parties before the penultimate deal. The delay in emptying the cantonments has been caused partly by the indecisiveness of the Maoist leadership as it makes a final attempt to get the whole party on board. But Nepali Congress and CPN-UML have also upset the atmosphere of trust created by previous confidence building measures—leading up to the seven-point agreement—by reneging on the Zurich agreement on forms of governance.
These deviations and recalibrations might seem unnecessary and pointless, but if you take a long view, despite the anxiety it causes to the public, these readjustments in respective party positions offer a final chance to correct flawed diagnosis and subsequent prescriptions on important political questions facing Nepal. It is also a chance for all major parties to carry along the dissidents among them as they go about finalising the details of Nepal’s post-transition political and constitutional journey.
Inclusion of various factions also means giving some ownership of the process and agreements to both hard-line and conservative elements in all three major parties, so that they do not take to the streets the very day the constitution is promulgated, and burn its copies. Even though these delay-induced reflections are not by design and, in fact, are the unintended
outcome of partisan and personal considerations, they do serve an important function in correcting decisions or agreements reached in revolutionary fervour and/or without proper consultations.
There are three major issues facing political parties on which they have not been able to resolve their differences: Rank determination of former PLA members, system of governance, priority rights, self-determination, and the number of the provinces in the federal setup.
NC and UML are insisting that the Maoists abide by the seven-point agreement on integration before an agreement on the constitution, but the former rebels want other parties to be a bit more accommodative.
“Ranks of the enlisted soldiers will be determined based on the standards of the security body concerned. The ranking will take place on the basis of the existing system of the security body, and without affecting the career growth of those already serving under the security body concerned. The enrolment date of the PLA soldiers will be based on the date previously recorded by the verification of UNMIN,” reads a section of the seven-point agreement.
The Maoists always saw this lack of details in the agreement as “constructive ambiguity”—a point on which they can come back to later to renegotiate the details. It is not conclusively clear if the parties had a Gentlemen’s Agreement on ranks in addition to the seven-point deal; Maoist leaders suggest they did. Even a key NC leader had told us right before the agreement was signed that his party was open to honourary ranks to be given to senior PLA commanders.
Maoists have been demanding at least one Brigadier General Position, while NC leaders rule out anything above a Major. Maoist Chariman Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been quoted by one NC interlocutor as saying that those given honourary ranks will retire within a year to take part in politics. Dahal’s key concern has been appeasing the hardliners who demand an “equal and dignified” integration. Some concessions on actual position and some honourary ranks to could do the trick in taking the hardliners along as the final give-and-take begins on all issues.
An agreement on System of Governance hinges on progress in the integration and rehabilitation process. And breaking the stalemate on integration, in turn, depends on Prachanda’s calculations.
His presidential ambition is an open secret. Acutely aware that others won’t accept a presidential system, he lobbied hard for the mixed model last year. When the deal unraveled in December, it came as a personal shock to Dahal who sees himself as “no less important than a president”—even without the formal title. He took it as conspiracy to keep him away from a position he feels he deserves for his “sacrifices”—temporarily robbing him of the incentive to conclude the process. Yet the deadlock did offer a chance to look into the pluses and minuses of a mixed model.
The mixed model is a thoroughly flawed system and would be a recipe for disaster. It will create what Prachanda and others want to avoid—parallel power centres. Instead, what has now been floated by progressive elements within the Nepali Congress, and proposed in the UML’s election manifesto, a directly elected prime minister with ceremonial president elected by the parliament, can provide both an aura of stability and necessary checks and balances. With some reforms, the set-up can adopt best of both parliamentary and presidential systems.
State restructuring
The issue of state restructuring suddenly appears less contentious among major parties than initially thought to be. The State Restructuring Commission’s report, which is due in less than a week, is likely to address a number of issues including centre-state relationship, residual powers, delineation of state boundaries, and names of the provinces. The parties will still have to sit down and finalise the number of provinces, issues of priority rights and self-determination. With time for a final give-and-take inching closer, trade-off on different issues is likely to entail a broader package agreement on all issues including power-sharing. Prachanda has already begun batting for a broad agreement including forming a national consensus government.
It is possible that the current stalemate could last as long as till the middle of February, by which time, the Maoists are expected to complete their nationwide internal trainings and deliberations.
In any case, the Supreme Court ruling has already drawn a finish line for the Constituent Assembly-giving a clear and mandatory deadline to runaway political process. The new ground reality means that the parties will have little incentives to dither and delay as we come closer to the beginning of the countdown for May 27.
john.parajuli@gmail.com
Posted on: 2012-01-26 09:02
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