The right angle
The Seven Point Agreement signed between the three major political parties along with the Madhesi Morcha has altered the dynamics of Nepali politics. The ramifications of the agreement are multiple. First, for the first time in five years, it seems likely that the peace process and the constitution drafting process will see its logical end. This has been largely possible because of the consensus that has generated of late at the insistence of the Government of India. This is not to suggest that the political parties could not find consensus without India being involved. Nepali politicians, mainly the Maoists, now realise the compulsion of concluding the peace process and holding elections at the earliest to institutionalise the changes after the 2006 People’s Movement. However, while it is logical to speculate that the peace process and constitution drafting process will meet its rightful end in the coming months; what is most important is that the end goal of this process will culminate in general elections that will alter the political landscape of Nepal invariably.
The conclusion of the peace process and the promulgation of a new constitution is one part of the progression exercise aimed at institutionalising the gains of the 2nd People’s Movement. The second and the final part are elections. Interestingly, the signing of the Seven Point agreement also puts into question the existence of smaller parties in the future. The signing of the agreement and talks of a power sharing deal only between the three major political parties and the Madhesi Morcha demonstrates the reluctance of these power centres to share political space with other political parties before elections. However, the critical question that needs to be raised as parties gear up for elections is—where will Nepali politics land when the results from the elections are out ? Or, in simple words, will Nepal survive as a pluralistic political society or will the left win, raising doubts on the sustenance of a future democratic Nepal.
In terms of electoral dynamics, the coming elections will be divided in four camps. The first camp is the strongest ideological camp, left in orientation led by the Maoists. In the coming months, UML’s ideological leanings will spell its survival in Nepali politics. The problem UML faces is the communist vote bank has already been captured by the Maoists and the democratic vote bank is strongly under Congress’s belt. In such a scenario, it has only two options—either UML has to become even more radical than the Maoists or UML has to correct its ideological orientation from a Marxist party to that of a socialist party. But even then, there will be problems for UML simply because the longer the Maoists get tempered within the constraints of constitutional politics; it is foreseeable that they will move more towards socialism at the expense of dropping radical communism from their ideology.
The second camp is the democratic camp led by the Nepali Congress. But ironically, democracy has morphed into being a common theme even for the Maoists. In fact, democracy has become a standard byline or rather the operating mantra for all political parties from the far right to the far left. Therefore, democracy has become an undisputed commodity. Although Congress will be able to garner votes from its traditional loyalists, a key question that remains to be answered is—will the Congress be able to motivate and galvanise the mass in order to challenge the Maoists? The answer to this question lies in the ability of the Congress party to unite like-minded forces in order to fight elections. But the possibility of Congress leading such an alliance is unlikely. Any moves to this effect will be thwarted by the Maoists as they will be quick to spell out fears of the peace process breaking down at the coming together of reactionary forces. The Congress, unable to withstand the political pressure of the Maoists, will acquiesce to their pressure tactics.
The third camp is the ethnic camp dominated by the Madhesi parties. The relevance of the Madhesi parties will be based on their performance during the elections. As things stand today, the Morcha remains fractious and their record in terms of governance has been severely marred by grafts and controversial statements, evoking the emotional issue of nationalism. Given the vacillating posturing of the Madhesi Morcha, there is general discomfort in Kathmandu regarding their ideological inclination. Therefore, the Madhesi parties are generally viewed as inconsistent and unreliable.
The signing of the Seven Point Agreement also has had a bearing on the future of the RPP. The impending conclusion of the peace process and the promulgation of a new constitution will put to rest political issues that were controversial in a period of uncertainty. In this light, the fourth camp is the conservative camp. This camp is large and unorganized, but is in the process of being united through the unity of RPP, RPP-Nepal and RJP. The proposed unity of the RPPs’ will bring about a fundamental shift in Nepali politics. If the Maoists are seen as the proponents of secularism, federalism based on ethnicity, the RPP, on the other hand, stands for Nepal being declared a fusion between a Hindu and a Buddhist state, and federalism based on geography rather than ethnicity. The unity of RPP is based on the idea of conservative liberalism. As there is a large pool of traditional/conservative voters deep rooted across different segments of the society, the unity of RPP will help galvanise and motivate a dormant force into being an active political force. The net result of this will be the creation of an alternative democratic force in Nepal.
While the peace process and the promulgation of a new constitution loom near, it will be prudent for the political parties to start preparing for elections. Keeping that in mind, one has to cautiously prepare for the sustenance of a liberal democratic polity through the culmination of the coming elections.
Thapa is the national governance manager at Hellen Keller International
Posted on: 2011-12-15 08:39
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