Into the 21st century
Thomas Pickering, a renowned American diplomat once remarked that the world was entering a paradigm shift in terms of international relations. What he simply tried to articulate was that the American hegemony was coming to an end, and in order to preserve America’s long term interest in the global arena, Pickering suggested America create alliances so that America could brace the inevitable reality of international relations characterised by multi polarity without much of a hump. In a world of politics dictated by the emerging dynamics of multi polarity, alliances have to be built. These alliances are formed on ideology, which in turn, spells other avenues of collaboration; namely trade, economics and security along with the exploration of avenues where both countries can mutually benefit from one another. As America’s prominence in the international arena began with democracy in 1776, her status ever since then in international stage has only risen. Today, after nearly two 240 years as the world’s most powerful country, America’s continued economic decline and her inability to act unilaterally without taking her partners into confidence has sparked debates that suggest global politics is seeing the eventual demise unipolarity. It is in this context that America has chosen to develop strategic partnership with three countries in the recent past all of whom are functioning democracies, able military nations and regional powers in their own right - Brazil, South Africa and India.
Borrowing Prof S.D Muni’s theory of using constants and variables to describe two nations’ relationships, the emergence of Indo-US alliance has its own constancy which can be best explained by its shared commitment to the philosophy of liberal democracy and neoliberal economics. The strategic variable in the Indo-US alliance can be best explained by the two countries mutual concern over the growing instability in the world caused by radical Islam—both countries are victims of radical terrorism—and of course, the rise of China and consequently, the reshaping of the Asian political landscape as being unipolar, demonstrated by the emerging dominance of China in global affairs. In order to check mate China’s unipolar status in Asian politics, America is now keener to engage Japan and India on issues that concern Asia. This engagement is done with the simple objective of arresting the situation of Asian politics drifting into the abyss of unipolarity dictated by China.
While it is hyperbole to suggest Nepal can play a decisive role in creating a gulf between Sino-India relations; however, what is true is the fact that while both India and China continue to fight for influence, it will also do so in Nepal, while refraining from any misadventures that can spark the slightest diplomatic standoff. It is important to remember that in 1989 when China was troubled internally with the Tianmen Square episode, Nepal was then ushering into a new era—an era of liberal democracy with the open support of the Government of India. Although China welcomed the return of democracy in 1990, it remained deeply suspicious of the political parties who—by the influence of western powers—maintained a see-saw policy towards China’s security concerns in Tibet. The April Uprising of 2006 and the post-monarchy political system in Nepal forced China to alter its course in Nepal. The removal of monarchy meant that China lost a crucial ally, whose relationship with the monarchy was permanent and consistent in nature. As in 1990, post-2006 politics was backed openly by India and the international community, compromising of mostly western countries. Unfortunately, half a decade has passed since 2006 and the political uncertainty in Nepal seems only to be complicating further. This uncertainty has made China increasingly uncomfortable. In the short term, what China eagerly wants to see in Nepal is a stable political system which, in return, will have a stable government, with whom China can engage on a sustained basis over bilateral details. Although it had tacitly given into India’s support for a liberal democratic polity in Nepal, the failure to establish what China perceives to be a liberal democratic polity in Nepal since 2006, has now pushed China to look for partners in Nepal that can bring about peace and stability at the cost of sustained liberal democracy.
Although it is widely believed that China’s long term goal vis-à-vis India is to encircle India strategically and contain India’s influence to the periphery of the Indian Ocean, the recent Uighur rebellion in China will undoubtedly force a rethink in Beijing, as China strives to meet both its short and long term goals in the arena of international relations. A Tibet-centric national security policy will only serve to heighten tensions along the vast Himalayan frontier with which China shares four neighbors. As the world opens its markets, new economic opportunities are being created that is linking communities in an unparalleled way, unwitnessed before in human history. China too, is a beneficiary of that model; a model of reform undertaken by Deng Xiaoping that sees China’s growth rate at almost 10 percent a year. While Nepal is trapped geographically between the world’s two fastest growing economies, it is also caught in an ideological battle—both India and China have very contrasting world views. What is important for both countries to realise is that both their security and economic interests can’t be protected in the long run until and unless Nepal concludes its peace process and the constitution drafting process, within the stipulated time frame by November 2011. An abrupt conclusion of the peace process and the promulgation of a constitution, which lacks the essence of a pluralistic society, will only lead to a situation in future that spells a period of oppression. This could then lead to the open defiance of oppression, leading to another change in the political system bringing both China and India, and more importantly, the international community back into Nepali politics—a situation both countries must avoid.
Thapa is the Nat’l Governance Manager at Hellen Keller Int’l, Nepal
Posted on: 2011-08-07 09:13
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