Catastrophe if CA bites dust
KATHMANDU, MAY 27 - With the top three parties failing to come to an agreement on the Constituent Assembly (CA) extension, the country stands to face multiple possibilities— some of them catastrophic.
If the big three parties fail to forge consensus on CA tenure extension by Friday, extension through voting looks inevitable. While all non-Maoist parties represented in the current government and the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) have said they will support extension, the Maoist Standing Committee decided on Thursday that it would not support it “unless the party is assured of the prime minister’s resignation”.
For their part, the ruling parties still believe that the CA will be extended by midnight on Friday and the prime minister need not resign. Their reasoning: The Maoists will have “no choice” but to opt for the CA which guarantees their status as the largest party. Despite political posturing, the Maoists, according to this reasoning, will eventually vote for extension of the CA.
Extension-scenario
If the Maoists decide anyhow to go for extension, the CA will be extended and that will avoid confrontation between the Maoists and the non-Maoist parties, at least for now.
Even with the extension, however, a host of issues that have put them at loggerheads will remain unresolved. It still remains to be seen how early the parties will agree on the “package deal.”
The deal includes agreement on number and modality of integration and rehabilitation of Maoist combatants, closing down of YCL barracks, return of property seized by the Maoists and fundamentals of the new constitution.
“If we extend the CA without agreeing on a package deal, the key issues including integration would remain unresolved indefinitely,” said Nepali Congress leader Bimalendra Nidhi.
Besides, the other two issues—closing down of YCL “barracks”, and returning of seized property—will continue to remain alive. “All these issues will likely take time for negotiations and there is every possibility that the parties may adopt intractable positions, leading to renewed stalemate,” said an NC leader.
Forging consensus on the two major issues of constitution writing—state restructuring and forms of governance—will also be a Herculean task.
On forms of governance, the Maoists are for directly elected executive president, while the NC is for an executive prime minister elected by the House. The UML, on the other hand, is for directly elected prime minister. Regarding state restructuring, there is division within and among the parties on the number of provinces and the basis of mapping. As long as those issues remain unresolved, there is every possibility that the parties will not be able to round up constitution writing.
CA non-extension
The Maoist and non-Maoist parties have a diametrically opposite readings on the peace process in the event of CA non-extension. The Maoists say the peace process will continue even as the CA goes on “suspended animation”.
“As long as UNMIN continues to stay, the peace process will remain alive but the CA will go on suspended animation,” said Maoist leader Barsa Man Pun ‘Ananta’. The current UNMIN terms expires on Sept. 15. But, according to the ruling parties, in case of the non-extension, the CA gets dissolved and the peace process effectively comes to an end. “With the dissolution of CA, the possibility of consensus including fulfilling the demands put forth by the Maoists will be slim,” said Nidhi. “Even the future of the CPA would be questionable. Keeping CA alive is, therefore, necessary to address all outstanding issues.”
The non-extension scenario looks bleak.
“Those groups that lost relevance after June 2006 will try to reassert themselves. It includes rightists within the centrist parties. Various groups who are outside the CA process will gain political capital,” said political commentator Prashant Jha.
Some believe the government could even declare an emergency and military hostilities could gradually resume. Jha believes there won’t be any militarised confrontation immediately, which is the “only silver lining at the moment.”
A Madheshi political leader Brikhesh Chandra Lal fears the country may plunge into a conflict between the state and non-state parties, Maoists and non-Maoists, pro- and anti-republican forces, pro- and anti-federalist forces, pro- and anti-secularist forces, Tarai and the hills, and indigenous and non-indigenous communities.
“We are looking at a very bleak scenario where everybody could potentially be pitted against everybody,” said Lal of the Tarai Madhesh Loktantrik Party.
Posted on: 2010-05-28 09:17
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Abin
Shit! The note is lost. I had better avoid extemporising. ...have been told not to blab.
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