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Maoists riding a tiger: Can’t call off stir, can’t go on
KATHMANDU, MAY 06 -
On the fifth day of their indefinite strike on Thursday, Maoists faced retaliation across the country, with at least three violent incidents reported in the Capital. Curfew was clamped in Parbat (West), Jumla (Mid West) and Dhankuta (East). Timely intervention by the police stopped the confrontation between Maoists and pro-Hindu activists in Birgunj (Central Tarai) from getting out of hand. Still, sources say, the danger is far from over and that the Central and Eastern Tarai could see major flare-ups in the near future.
Opinion is divided over whether these incidents have been engineered or are spontaneous. It could be both.
Organised forces seem to have tapped on the growing public anger over a strike that has severely crippled life and shows no early sign of ending. An informed source had told this correspondent as far back in February that “strong ground preparations” were on to counter the Maoists across the country and that the anti-Maoist surge would be especially evident in the Tarai where “they will be completely annihilated.”
On Thursday, he reiterated his claim. “Today’s incidents are only the casting. If the Maoists don’t withdraw their strike immediately, brace for a full blown horror movie.” Both the government and the Maoists, he claimed, may even be “looking forward to a limited confrontation.”
So the obvious questions: Will the Maoists continue their agitation in face of what looks like growing public retaliation? If not, what could be their exit plan? With their position seemingly comfortable, what do non-Maoist parties now want? And is there a science to limit the “limited confrontation” amid growing volatility?
Three leading parties — UCPN (Maoist), NC and CPN-UML — have engaged in intense talks this past week or so, especially after the media fraternity and FNCCI mounted pressure on them late last month to avert impending disaster. This followed the Maoist announcement that they would launch an indefinite nationwide strike if Prime Minister Nepal doesn’t quit office by May 1. Five days on, Prime Minister Nepal continues to stay put and the recent inter-party flare-up has further polarised the ground.
“There is a huge crisis of confidence between the Maoist and non-Maoist parties,” says Krishna Prasad Sitaula, an NC leader, home minister in GP Koirala’s last government (2006-08) and a key interlocutor in the early stage of the peace process. “The Maoists have continually breached the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which they had assented to in 2006.”
The Maoists, of course, continue to level similar charges of CPA violations against the ruling coalition. But when people like Sitaula, once seen as one of Maoist Chairman Dahal’s strongest allies outside his own party UCPN (Maoist), begin to question the Maoist commitment to the peace process, it shows the parties have drifted far apart. “Recall the time,” says Sitaula, “when my own NC colleagues would label me pro-Maoist. We, led by Girija Babu, went far to accommodate the Maoist feelings.”
Now the Maoists, he adds, have lost that “moderate constituency” in the NC and UML.
What do the Maoists need to do to regain that constituency?
The major bone of contention has been the modalities (and the number) for the integration and rehabilitation of the Maoist combatants. Agreement on the issue and commitment to a date, say NC and UML leaders, will go a long way in convincing them that the Maoist party is committed to transforming itself to a civilian party. Non-Maoist parties also want an agreement on a framework and quick action on returning seized property; this is especially urgent for the NC. “Those two issues and dismantling the barracks of YCL would go a long way in assuring us that the Maoists are serious about keeping their pledge to past accords,” says Pradeep Gyawali, a UML central committee leader.
Posted on: 2010-05-07 08:24
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