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Experts predict good monsoon
KATHMANDU, APR 20 -
This year, the monsoon rains are likely to be more than normal in the country. The possibility has raised hopes of increased summer crops’ yield, senior meteorologist of Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) said on Tuesday.
Due to the worst yet monsoon in 2009 — the driest one recorded in a decade — summer crop yield plummeted by 30 to 35 percent which caused a shortage of food grains and triggered inflation to double digits.
DHM senior divisional meteorologist Saraju Kumar Baidya said the summer monsoon (June-September) is expected to be normal this year in South Asia and slightly above normal for Nepal particularly. However, the more accurate seasonal predictions for a specific country would come after more than a week, he said.
The regional forecast was based on discussions with officials of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and department representatives from Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and Maldives on the first day of the the three-day session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) held in Pune, India from April 13 to 15 this year. Baidya represented Nepal at the SASCOF.
The regional level meeting was organised to strike a consensus climate outlook for the 2010 summer monsoon season rainfall in South Asia. According to him, experts presented forecasts of sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean and expected rainfall distribution over South Asia, using statistical and global dynamics. “Based on prevailing global climate indicators and forecasts from statistical and global dynamical models, rainfall over South Asia, in general, is likely to be within the normal range,” said the SASCOF report.
The weakening El Nino weather phenomenon, which disrupts normal weather patterns, is likely to help the monsoon across the South Asian region this year.
Meanwhile, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MoAC) secretary Hari Dahal said the adequate monsoon rains would boost major summer crops like paddy, maize, edible oil and pulse crops like bean. “The agriculture of the country is critically dependent on the monsoon rainfall in the country which accounts for 80 percent of total annual rainfall recorded inside the country,” he said.
Posted on: 2010-04-21 08:41
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