Editorial»
Indonesia’s partway democracy
JAN 21 - After three decades of dictatorship the strongman of a Muslim country finally was removed, producing scenes of jubilation but also a devastating outbreak of looting and the breakdown of law and order. With support from the West, the new regime promised democracy—but many were dubious. They predicted the country would break up along ethnic lines, that Islamic extremists or nationalist generals would come to power, and that even if democratic elections were held, the resulting government would be unable to manage the country.
As it turned out, none of those disasters has come to pass in Indonesia. Nearly six years after the overthrow of dictator Suharto—and five after its first elections—the world’s largest Muslim country instead has merely a lot of problems. Terrorists linked to al-Qaida have carried out two major attacks in 18 months; corruption and poverty are rampant; in one province, a low-grade civil war drags on in which the army has been accused of major human rights abuses.
Indonesia, however, is still a democracy. It will have at least two and probably three major elections this year. It is far freer than it was four years ago; its economy has stabilized; and its government, though not particularly friendly to the Bush administration, is on the right side of the war on terrorism.
Indonesia, in other words, offers some broad ideas about what, in the best case, Iraq might look like in five years’ time. It’s a picture that wouldn’t please human rights advocates, wouldn’t make the case for Muslim democracy irrefutable and probably wouldn’t silence opponents of the war. But it would represent a huge improvement over the previous dictatorship, and it would offer a reasonable prospect of further liberalization over time.
Looking back at Indonesia’s past half-dozen years, the lesson that leaps out is that democratic transition in a large, poor and potentially fractious country didn’t produce either the chaos that pessimists expected or the democracy that some hoped for, but a complex and sometimes confusing mixture of the two, combined with lingering elements of the old order. The mix could persist for decades. What matters is the trend line—whether such institutions as a free press, independent judiciary and civilian-run military are slowly gaining ground.
“A lot of people take a snapshot and say ‘this country doesn’t fit my ideal of democracy,’ ” says Tim Meisburger, director of democratization and election programs for the Asia Foundation. “But it’s better to look at the context. If you look at countries like Taiwan or Thailand, you can see that democratic transitions in Asia historically have taken about 40 years. It’s a long process, and Indonesia is five years into it.”
Meisburger, who lives in Jakarta, is an unapologetic optimist—as someone in his job probably needs to be. His organization recently published the results of a large survey of Indonesian attitudes about democracy that produced predictably mixed results. On one hand a majority of Indonesians said they might favor a return to “a strong leader like Suharto, even if it reduces rights and freedoms.”
But almost as many said they believed that the upcoming elections for parliament and president would make a difference, and an overwhelming majority, 93 percent, said they planned to vote.
Meisburger contends that Indonesia actually “is the most democratic Muslim country in the world.” The crises it has lived through in the past five years are in some ways a testament to what can be overcome. Its first president, chosen in back-room horse-trading, was the blind leader of an Islamic movement and proved utterly incompetent. The democratic system managed to remove him. His successor, Megawati Sukarnoputri, is also weak—but her government has managed to stabilize the economy, and the stock market is booming. The military has been unrestrained in waging a dirty war against separatists in the province of Aceh, and one former general indicted by the United Nations for crimes in East Timor is running for president.
But, Meisburger argues, the once-all-powerful military is steadily losing influence. A constitutional reform stripped it of its appointed seats in local and national parliaments, while mandating, this July, the first direct popular election for president in Indonesia’s history.
It’s true: Indonesia’s Muslims have embraced religious moderation and secular rule more fully than Iraqis; the economy and middle class are more globalized; and the revolution and transition to democracy were homegrown, not imposed by Western invasion.
Still, Indonesia shows that democracy can be launched abruptly in a large and undeveloped Muslim country, that it can flounder under poor leadership, be challenged by Islamic terrorist movements, fail to control elements of the old dictatorship and endure localized insurgent movements—and that after all this, the system will still be standing and freedom still spreading. “The trend,” says Meisburger with a grin, “is positive.” Posted on: 2004-01-21 02:58
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