Editorial»
Near miss - 2003
JAN 12 - The Aviation Safety Network (ASN) recently issued a press release based on the review related to worldwide commercial airlines accident in 2003. The data for which were compiled using the airliner accident database of ASN, the Internet leader in aviation safety information. ASN uses information from authoritative and official sources like NTSB, ICAO etc. The goal of ASN is to provide everyone, including professionals with an interest in aviation with up-to-date, complete and reliable authoritative information on airliner accidents and safety issues. This piece is almost wholly based on that press release except for some minor changes and some relevant additions.
Interestingly, on 24 December ASN had expressed a sense of euphoria that “as for aviation safety in general, 2003 has been an extremely safe year”. Up to that point ASN records showed 24 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents with a record low fatality total of just 538. Had the last few days of that year remained accident-free, 2003 would have become the safest year since 1945! But alas, that was not to be as a crash, the very next day, resulted in the death of 139.
There were in total 25 fatal airliner accidents last year (2003) resulting in 677 deaths. This was the best year if just the number of accidents were taken into account. On this count 2001 ranks second best with 35 recorded accidents. And it is reassuring to know that the decreasing number of accidents is in line with the downward trend that started in 1989.
But when fatalities are compared 1984 had 644 deaths followed by 648 in 1954. We can perhaps take 2003 as the second best in terms of fatalities if the record of 1954 is not considered. Frankly, it is not comparable on the grounds of tremendous increase both in terms of passengers and the volume of traffic since then.
But, seen from a different angle, trends related to accident survival-rate do not give a good picture. Percentage of occupants that survived fatal airliner accidents did show a significant negative trend in 2003. On an average about 13 percent of the occupants survived an accident in 2003, which is significantly worse than the 1993-2002 average of 32 percent.
Despite the fact that 2003 was an extremely safe year, there is a reason for concern in Africa. The 2003 record would have been much better had there been improvement in the African continent. It was again the most unsafe continent with 28 percent (7/25) of all fatal airliner accidents occurring in Africa. The record is even alarming as the African region only accounts for approximately 3 percent of all world aircraft departures. On the other hand, trends show a decrease in the number of fatal accidents for Europe, North-and South America over the past six years.
Last year’s accidents again highlighted the four aviation safety priorities, identified by the Flight Safety Foundation (FSF): Controlled flight into terrain (CFIT).
CFIT occurs when an airworthy aircraft under the control of the flight crew is flown unintentionally into terrain, obstacles or water, usually with no prior awareness by the crew.
CFIT accidents in 2003 were probably responsible for almost 36 percent (9/25) of all fatal accidents while fatality-wise it was little over 33 percent (225/677).
Approach and landing accidents : Eight accidents fell into this category. Of this, the major one was 08 January accident of a Turkish Airlines Avro RJ. 100 which crashed just short of the runway while attempting to land in foggy weather, killing 75 of the 80 occupants.
Loss of control: Again several accidents last year can be attributed to a loss of control of some kind. The Beechcraft 1900 twin turboprop plane was the focus of attention after two accidents involving probable elevator trim problems. It may not be out of context to recall that there are private airlines in Nepal operating such aircraft.
Human factors : It’s too early to tell in what cases flight crew actions were a causal factor in accidents in 2003. However, the January 9 CFIT accident of a Fokker F-28 in Peru was, according to the Peruvian investigators, primarily caused by an excessive confidence and lack of communication between the crew.
It has to be understood that human factor does not necessarily mean “pilot error” alone as is commonly thought. An accident can seldom be pinpointed to just one factor as it is generally triggered by a series of factors cumulated over time. Individually contributing factors may even look quite benign. It is important to determine which mistakes were made, why were these made and under what circumstances were they made etc.
The Cotonou crash: Here are some facts about the last accident of the December 25, 2003 in Cotonou, Benin. A UTA aircraft with 156 people on board in its newly acquired ex-American Airlines B-727 taxied in a warm afternoon (32 C) to the end of the runway (2400m) as it prepared to takeoff. As per FAA runway length requirement calculations, a fully laden Boeing 727-200 with the type of engines and an appropriate flap setting would, given the weather and airfield elevation, need a runway length of approximately 2439 m. In other words, the B-727 would have barely made it had it just been fully laden. The B-727 barely climbed after take-off causing the main undercarriage to strike the roof of a single story building first then it hit the airport boundary fence. It ultimately crashed and broke up on the Atlantic shoreline killing most of the 139 going home for the Christmas.
Experts view that the contributing factors could have been: operation at or above maximum take-off weight, short runway or even insufficient power. It was an accident in Africa, last one of the year at that, which stopped year 2003 from becoming the safest year in the aviation history since 1945! Let us hope 2004 will do better by claiming the safest year title.Posted on: 2004-01-13 04:04
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