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Algebra of a cocked eye look
DEC 07 - As a nation, we came across a most blatant
act of external intervention last week. But many here billed the Indian remark that Nepal would do well to form an all-party government a positive development. The question is if that is positive turn of event than what does negative posture look like? Pay rich tribute to whoever said politics produces strange bedfellows. It does.
In fact, the call made in New Delhi traveled to Kathmandu to raucous reception. Many, except, of course, this scribe, interpreted it as an indication of a welcome and imminent change. What is also true is your interpretation depends on where you belong. The call issued in New Delhi echoed here for a long while.
I for one also came to know for the first time that the Indian side monitors our politics. Or else how could they suggest a remedy? A cock cannot be expected to have a go at the hen next to him unless he has kept a steady cocked eye on her. Some might perceive a solution in all-party dispensation, but the same, briefly speaking, is a will-o-the-wisp at best. It could be designed to give some time to Surya Bahadur Thapa and respite to rebels on the run.
Many are already being reminded of the filthy 50s when India dabbled in the internal affairs and married political parties and monarchy. The worst part was the latter refused to change. The two partners, which were thrown together in an inexplicable hurry, never lived happily ever after. The jarring congress has paved the way for a number of crises, including the latest one.
Given the rumblings, it appears that the Indian side has something to do at hand and fast and deftly enough. But as to when they will swing into action is a million-dollar question. But depend on them to do it for you and me sooner or later. Mind you, Thapa has come back with added confidence from New Delhi. Wish you were there at the airport to see him beaming in confidence.
Hold on, the algebra of a cocked eye look on Nepal and making suggestions is replete with so many connotations. The one who prompts the next move could be a genuine friend. But the fact that Maoist rebels are functioning very much under the nose of the Indian government suggests there is more to it than that which just meets the eye. You can say Nepal-India friendship is a misnomer in real sense of the term.
Anyone could predict what is there in store for Nepal now. With the call to have an all-party government, expect Thapa to be in place for a long while unless, of course, the high wind blows away everything in its wake. Meanwhile those of you who want to see Thapa bowing out gracefully and in a manner which would leave even the most celebrated choreographers as fully stunned will have to wait.
Mind you the all-party government formula is intended to give Thapa an extension while the rebels, too, would get time to regroup, following a cease-fire for staged talks. Forget about their success or failure. But take it from me, there is no way as to why the rebels should not co-operate should the time come. Coincidentally, the rebels seem to be enjoying the same position in India as the Nepali Congress (NC) did in 1950. But the similarity is not that simplistic.
It seems that any solution will have rebels on top for now, with mainstream parties having their say to the extent they can create problems or raise hell. Of course, rebels have been serving as chips to tighten the grip on those on top here lately but nothing overt should be expected in a world where everything is simulated to the needs. Which means there is hardly anything, which the parties can do until and unless they have the co-operation from the Indian side.
Many are waxing eloquent on the merits of the statement made by Atal Behari Vajpayee already and thus can be said to belong to political parties top leaders of which are really a tired lot now.
Nothing good is going to happen. Of course, things could still be said to be good if the political parties could manage to win over the rebels by hook or by crook. They could still be said to be managing to turn the things in their favor had they been able to win over the constitutional monarch on their side. Since that has not happened, issues are far from sorted out.
Consider also the fact that many are of the view that Nepal is still far away from the worst case scenario which is coming its way at a blinding speed and may catch everyone of us unawares sooner or later. They insist that the groundwork is as good as done. Certain things are better left unsaid. And what follows next is ominous enough to throw up an answer.
Whatever it means, the Indian foreign policy hawks have been all along openly saying that the assassination of the royal family has led to realignment of political forces. The word is that is posing a serious challenge to India. Again, with Nepal politically unstable, they are prodding the foreign policy establishment that India would do well to protect its interests in Nepal. This means painful experimentation will follow, before culminating in anything under the sun.
India can say it has unchanged geostrategic compulsions, with Nepal still a buffer state and King Gyanendra proving to be a great player meanwhile on political chessboard. Policy change here means suitable corresponding changes there.
The Maoist insurgency, too, has served as a timeless issue, which India has been making good use of so far and is expected to perfect the same in future. But one is advised to take it in face value only after considering for a moment that the Nepalese Maoist leaders are having excellent time in India.
Yet what is also true is India considers monarchy as essential force to ensure stability in the Himalayan region. But nowhere do they refer to the political parties in the same breath. Which is to say the relations can never be really excellent given the Indian interests. This scribe was once sadly left to blurt out that with a friend like India Nepal does not need enemies when former Indian Prime Minster I K Gujral wanted to know what common Nepalese people here had to say about India.
(The writer can be reached at ld3045@hotmail.com)Posted on: 2003-12-08 04:45
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