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‘Course correction’ will decide when Maoists get into govt
- news analysis
KATHMANDU, NOV 18 - The widely reported agreement between Nepali Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala and Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal on formation of the High Level Political Mechanism (HLPM) is certainly a step in the right direction. As someone who steered the early stage of the peace process and successfully led the 2006 Jana Andolan II, GPK still enjoys a lot of political goodwill across party lines and with civil society and the international co-mmunity. In a political landscape getting increasingly faction-ridden and fragmented in the face of deepening identity politics, Dahal and Koirala still tower over other political leaders.
Certainly, the noise coming in from Singapore does indicate that the transition politics could head to its rightful place in the centre; there has been a strong left-right polarisation since the Maoists came to power last August putting the peace process in peril. But to assume that Koirala and Dahal have already made a breakthrough would be premature.
The HLPM, which brings party bosses from major parties (Maoists, NC and UML, and maybe more) together, should be an easy sell. What will however be a hard sell, especially so for Koirala, is to get his party’s support to replace the government led by Madhav Kumar Nepal, at least in the short-term.
There is a strong indication that rapprochment between the NC and Maoist bosses will lead to a new political alignment. The new national unity government, according to one theory, will possibly be headed by Dahal, with GPK keeping a tight leash on him as chief of the multi-party HLPM. The HLPM could see quick progress after Koirala’s return from Singapore on Sunday. But formation of a new government could take a while because of both internal and external
factors.
“The High Level Mechanism has been GPK’s agenda for quite a while and the party should be fine with that,” said NC’s central co-mmittee member and former Finance Minister Ram Sharan Mahat, an outspoken critic of “double standards in Maoist politics.” He added: “But even GPK is not for changing the government.” What Mahat and a number of other NC leaders the Post spoke to clearly implied was: “It will not be easy for GPK.” The recently concluded NC Mahasamiti amply demonstrated as much. The party held the meet despite Koirala’s reservations and then opted for collective leadership—again—despite Koirala’s reservations.
In the absence of a clear majority in parliament, and the need for consensus to draft the constitution, the most viable option will be the formation of a national unity government. That is where the external factor will play a major role in rallying parties. “Like it or not, Delhi is a factor in Nepali po-litics,” said a senior NC leader insisting anonymity. “Delhi, to date, is not yet convinced that the Maoists mean what they say. Maoists contradict themselves all the time.”
According to this theory, how early, and whether at all, the Maoists come to power will depend on how quickly the Maoists can assure New Delhi that they have abandoned the politics of contradictions and are firmly committed to “course correction.” Towards that end, the Maoists will need to commit to a constitution that respects multiparty democracy, and mutually agreed issues related to rehabilitation and integration of ex-PLA combatants. There could even be a new multi-party agreement expressing these commitments.
But few, not even Indian officials, like to talk about what is perhaps Delhi’s major concern about the Maoists: their alleged “China tilt”. To many in Delhi, the Maoist-led government looked to make a strategic shift towards Beijing, a claim strongly denied by various Maoist leaders. “It doesn’t matter what you and I think,” said an NC leader with foreign policy experience. “There is perception in Delhi that the Maoists have a China tilt. New Delhi will look for a firm commitment from the Maoists that they can handle diplomacy with greater finesse.”
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