Conflict patterns, violent trends
KNOWLEDGE AND POWER
Nepalis are aware that violent ethnic conflicts have increased in the last decade. However, not much is known in terms of patterns and trends of the conflicts. Such knowledge will be useful in better understanding the phenomena and formulating more informed approaches and policies to manage them. This article will point out some known, others less known and unknown patterns
and trends.
Despite the projection of Nepal as a peaceful and ethnically harmonious society, ethnic violence was never new. The repression of minority groups and ethnic activists occurred throughout Nepal’s history since its formation. The Limbu and Tamang rebellions and their repression in the last decades of the eighteenth century, and the Kirati and Tamang rebellions in the 1950s, are some examples from the recent and distant past.
However, the level, scale and nature of violence are different today. As table 1 points out, ethnic violence increased significantly in the last decade. While the country witnessed around six violent conflicts between ethnic groups (violent protests, attacks and riots) during the four decades from 1951 to 1990 (table 1), the last two decades (1990-2010) witnessed ten violent ethnic riots (excluding violent activities of armed groups).
The violent conflicts can be divided broadly into two categories: the first includes riots and attacks, often instigated and launched by extremist organisations of the dominant group, against minority religious groups and communities, but occasionally launched by marginalised groups against the dominant group as well. Groups like Madhesis, Muslims and Christians have been victims of riots, bombings, murders and violent attacks. The Muslims have a long history of being attacked, whereas the Christians have been attacked after transition began in 2006. The second type of violent activity is a new phenomenon; for the first time in Nepal’s history, an ethnic armed group, the Kirat Workers Party, appeared in 1997 and such groups have proliferated since the turn of the century.
Compared to before, riots have spread after the turn of the century to different parts of the country. The Hindu-Muslim riots during 1958-59 and 1971 were confined to central Tarai districts and its vicinity (Mahottari, Bara and Rauthahat). All five violent riots in 1990s were confined to Nepalganj, where a considerable Muslim population lives. After the turn of the century, riots have spread to Kathmandu and eastern, central and western districts in the Tarai. The hill community was involved in riots against the Madhesis in 2000 (Rhitik Roshan incident) and Muslims in 2004 in Kathmandu (riots after the killings of Nepalis in Iraq).
Violent ethnic protests, riots and attacks have occurred more often during open, democratic years. Of the 16 cases listed in Table 1, violent riots were recorded only twice during the three and half decade long autocratic years (1960-1990 and 2002-2006). Violent ethnic conflicts increased after the restoration of democracy in 1990 and during the transition since 2006. Nine violent conflicts/riots occurred during the democratic years since 1990 (five during the 1990s and four during the first decade of the twenty-first century). While democracy can be a peaceful mechanism for managing conflicts, it can also provide space for extremists to incite and engage in violent activities, especially during transition and the early years when the system has not taken roots.
The Tarai/Madhes has been affected more by violent conflicts. According to a news report that cited a Home Ministry source, 16 and 10 active armed groups respectively were operating in the Tarai and eastern hilly regions in 2011. Data on killings by ethnic organiasations, collected by INSEC, show that the Madhesi organisations are involved the most killings, with a high of 108 in 2007, 75 in 2008, 22 in 2009 and 29 in 2010.
The extremist Hindu organisations rank second in the killings. They have killed more people than organisations of indigenous nationalities: seven by Hindu organisations and four by indigenous organisations between 2005 and 2010. The killings by ethnic organisations have declined after reaching a peak of 109 in 2007, but have remained around 25-30 per annum for 2009 and 2010. Violent riots since 1990 have mostly occurred in urban and populous areas while activities of the armed rebels were mostly limited to rural areas, both in the hills and the Tarai.
The rebellions of indigenous nationalities and Madhesis have occurred due to the groups’ perception of inequality and injustice towards them. On the other hand, dominant groups have engaged in violent riots and killings due to their sense of loss of their privileges and rights. The first type of violent conflict can be addressed by accommodation while the later type of violence can be curbed through improvement in law and order.












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