E-Kantipur

Can Nepal become rich by exporting its surplus electricity to India? This may be one of the most frequently discussed topics among academicians, economists, investors and the government. If we visit the websites of India’s Ministry of Power (MoP) and Central Electricity Authority, we can observe one possibility of this dream coming true. India, which is in dire need of energy for economic development, is still dependent upon thermal power. This non-renewable power source constitutes more than 65 percent of the country’s total electricity generation, out of which nearly 54 percent is from coal alone. The MoP is striving to construct energy plants behind a slogan of “Power for all by 2012”. India is also developing nuclear energy plants to meet ever-growing demands. But at present, the total share of nuclear energy only consists of about three percent of total electricity generation; hydropower only represents about 25 percent. If we look closely at these figures, the answer of the above question seems to be in the affirmative. But, will this hypothesis remain valid forever?

Some days ago, I read an article titled “Faultlines and Fortunes” by V.V. Desai published in Business Today (Nov. 14, 2010) about India’s nuclear energy ambitions. According to the article, India has planned to expand its nuclear power production to 20,000 MW by 2020, 63,000 MW by 2032 and 470,000 MW by 2050. At this point, it should be mentioned that the total global output from nuclear power plants is around 400,000 MW. Though India’s plan sounds ambitious, if we look at its economic growth and corresponding need for energy, such an undertaking could be possible.

India’s total installed electricity capacity stands at 170,228.86 MW as if Jan. 31, 2011. Of the total capacity, a majority is from thermal power plants (111294.48 MW), followed by hydropower (37367.40 MW). Similarly, the output from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) is 16,786.98 MW and the output from nuclear power plants is 4780.00 MW. India’s twentieth nuclear reactor—the 220 MW Unit-4 of the Kaiga Atomic Power station—was synchronised with the grid on Jan. 20, 2011, taking India’s total nuclear capacity to 4,780 MW.

When we talk about India’s nuclear power plants, there’s one interesting point to note. Looking at their distribution, 18 are situated in southern and middle states—four units in Karnataka, two units in Gujarat, two units at Tamil Nadu, six units at Rajasthan and four units at Maharashtra. The remaining two units are located at the Narora Power Station in Uttar Pradesh (440 MW). The relative absence of nuclear plants in Nepal’s energy market in the northern part of India is a point to ponder. One reason for this may be that India considers the hydroelectricity generated in Nepal enough to meet the energy demands in those states. Whatever the case, Nepal has a market for energy in India, and we need to exploit these possibilities in time.

The issue of Nepal’s hydropower is often fiercely debated. Topics of debate are usually economic, socio-political and sometimes physical. However, I haven’t noticed the time frames and time constraints of strategies being discussed. When we discuss the prospects of developing hydropower in Nepal, we talk about economic aspects—things like how to gather funds for such undertakings. Similarly we talk about political and socio-economic ramifications—the effects of such projects on the local populace as well as across borders. What is generally left out of the debate is the fact that there is a time limit by which we must exploit these resources. We remain complacent with an idea that our rivers will be here forever. What we forget is that, though the rivers are perennial as is the possibility of generation of energy, the demand for energy generation may not be the same in the future and its value may no longer be worth the undertaking.

When I was doing my Proficiency Certificate Level in Science, our chemistry teacher told us the story of aluminium. During our study of metallurgy, he told us that a couple hundred years ago, the metal was more valuable than gold. Although aluminium is one of the most abundant metals in the earth’s crust, it wasn’t until the discovery of electrolytic process (the Hall-Héroult process) that the commercial production of aluminium was possible. Thus, the metal, that was once more precious than gold or platinum has become relatively inexpensive. The metal that was once a ‘precious metal’—a metal so precious that Napoleon III of France used aluminium plates for his most honoured guests while others were served in plates of gold—is now used to wrap leftovers. Such a precious metal, one that was used as a capstone of the Washington monument, has now been reduced to a mere commodity due to advances in technology. Our hydropower may suffer a similar fate if market dynamics shift in the future. There’s no questioning the fact that in the current scenario, India—especially the northern states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal—is our only customer. The prospect of consuming all our potential internally doesn’t seem possible now. And if we don’t supply energy when the market demands, it might be too late.

India’s nuclear ambition has already been explained above. It’s worth noting that India is one of the only six countries operating 20 nuclear power reactors. Furthermore, India has recently signed deals with France and Russia to develop more nuclear power plants. Therefore, the Indian ambition of 470,000 MW by 2050 seems quite possible. Nuclear power is still considered a Pandora’s box; especially the issue of nuclear waste disposal as well as cost and safety precautions inherent with working with radioactive materials. However, if India comes up with plans to install new plants in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar—a possible move to deal with looming energy crisis in the region—our hydropower will not have the same value as it does today.

Therefore, when we talk about hydropower as a possible means to boost our national economy, we must not forget that there is a time limit. Although our rivers may flow till the end of time, their use as a source of economic development through exploitation of hydropower will not last for forever.

Tiwari is a  student of electrical engineering at Kathmandu Engineering College

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