The bumbling bunch
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Although no forecast can be made about the result of the prime-ministerial election on Aug. 23, my prediction is that both candidates will stick to their candidacy with neither one getting a majority. Nepal will thus have no legitimate government. I can concede that there is a 5 percent chance of the Madhesi Morcha and the CPN- UML both agreeing to support the NC candidate at the behest of the transparent visits of the emissaries of a non-transparent external power. There is also a 5 percent chance of the Maoist candidate getting the fractional support of the Madhesi Morcha and some small parties and winning a simple majority.
If my first prediction of the failure to form a government proves correct, there may be a fresh call for the formation of a consensus government. The president had given this choice for an extended period of 12 days. Failing this opportunity, the UML tried to work out a deal with the formula of a two-thirds majority so as to be able to carry the new constitution through the Constituent Assembly (CA). But this attempt did not materialise. The second option of forming a government
with a simple majority in parliament did not also materialise after four successive rounds of voting. Now, after the failure to get a simple majority in four rounds of voting, the UML has started to seriously sell the idea of a consensus government. Is this a feasible option at this stage?
If my analysis is not wrong, the conditional support given to UML president Khanal by the Maoists was just make-believe. In the first place, his candidacy itself was made conditional by his own party that he had to attain a two-thirds support in the CA, knowing it would not be reached. The Maoist pledge to support him was also conditional that it had to be two-thirds. In their forecast, he was unlikely to get the coveted two-thirds as the Madhesi Morcha would not vote for him. Moreover, Maoist president Dahal himself was a formidable candidate. Thus the Maoist pledge to support Khanal was fake. Khanal is now campaigning for a consensus approach. He has again been given a make-believe answer that the Maoist candidate would withdraw in favour of a consensus approach, provided the NC candidate also does the same. With the Maoists insisting on a consensus government led by the Maoists, the NC is not likely to withdraw its candidature. So, the consensus approach is again likely to be a fiasco.
Even supposing the unlikely occurrence of the unlikely consensus approach, there will be a dearth of a consensus candidate. The Maoists will insist on their leadership which the NC will oppose tooth and nail. Conversely, the Maoists will oppose the NC candidate as arch rivals. Khanal has already been rejected with the two-thirds approach and he has been distancing himself from the Madhesi call for “one Madhes one pradesh” which will stand in the way of Madhesi support. The Madhesi leaders have distanced themselves from the non-Tarai parties/groups because of their stand on one Madhes. The remaining small parties cannot put forth a candidate of an amiable and acceptable national stature. So, where is the consensus candidate?
The people had given the parties an appropriate stature proportional to their contribution to the great transition. The Maoists had called for the removal of the feudal institution of monarchy, and they had given the first call for the formation of a CA. The NC and the UML had been tested in different roles after the restoration of the multiparty system. The newly emerging Tarai-based parties had been given relatively credible support for their pledge to enhance the performance of the Tarai region. The people had thus given each party a proportional stature on the basis of either their past performance or future prospects. The mandate was clear: All of them had to move collectively and make a new constitution besides concluding permanent peace. Nobody was authorised to go it alone.
If the message had been followed properly, both tasks would have been accomplished well within the given timeframe of two years. But the two years were wasted. It now looks almost certain that the added time will also be wasted in the same manner, meaning there will neither be a new constitution nor a peace deal. History will not spare any party. Some apparent causes can be listed here for future scrutiny.
The major blame will go to the Maoists. Their main flaw is entering into agreements without full forethought and never implementing the provisions of the agreements. This comes from their over estimation of their strength. They could have easily passed the constitution if they had utilised the coalition under their leadership. But their misconception of overpowering the whole process ejected them from the position of power. Furthermore, the Maoists feel very uncomfortable in having to operate in a loktantrik model.
The NC feels uncomfortable in having been underrated by the people, and its vanity does not allow it to accept the leadership of the Maoists. So, with several alibis it is trying to stay away from the shadow of the Maoists. It boasts of being the main loktantrik party, but it disregards the decision and mandate of the people. Its decision to run for the PM without the support of the Maoists goes against the wishes of the sovereign people. The Madhesi groups’ main flaw is that they are stuck in the thick mud of “one Madhes”. It is neither possible to get national support for this call nor can they come out without getting it granted. The false claim has made it impossible for them to come out without damaging their image in the eyes of the Tarai people. So they are engaged in delaying tactics.
The UML’s main flaw is that it could not take strong decisions despite being in command. It defied the people’s order by fielding a PM and other ministers who had been rejected by the people. However, it has reversed its course now and withdrawn its candidature for the PM when it could not get the support of a two-thirds majority, and is now talking seriously about the need for a consensus government. A lot more pressure will have to be built to get to the goal of consensus. The small parties can contribute by acting en masse. Civil society, the intelligentsia, the non-governmental sector and all available resources of facilitators will have to be mobilised, culminating in the call of the sovereign people.
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