Thursday, May 24, 2012
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The dream merchants

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A few months ago, we were on a field visit to the Kali Gandaki A hydroelectric project. After a tour of the powerhouse, one of my friends said, “All these structures, the machinery, turbines, generators and transformers; they must have cost billions. All this for 144 MW?” Then he turned towards me and added, “And our leaders say that they will build 10,000 MW in 10 years. Is Nepal capable of doing that?” I didn’t know what to say, but I corrected him by saying that it was not 10,000 MW in 10 years but 25,000 MW in 20 years. Little did I know at the time that within a few months, that correction would too be rendered incorrect.

A few weeks ago, there was a news story in this newspaper which stated that the committee that had been given the task of studying the prospects of generating 25,000 MW in 20 years had submitted its findings. The committee said there was a possibility of generating 37,000 MW in 20 years. I couldn’t believe how detached from reality the people at the upper echelons of politics had become that they couldn’t distinguish between ambition and stupidity. All of this has been handed down to the people as a fictional fruit to savour. Now that the promise of “what we will do” has been handed over, what about “how will we do it”? Any person properly acquainted with the technical, economic and political aspects of this will simply tag it as foolhardy.

Let me return to the story. When my friend told me that he was dumfounded by the sheer size of the machinery, I asked him what he actually expected to see in the powerhouse. He replied that he expected to see a medium-sized penstock about a metre in diameter, and the turbine/generator assembly of a size that could comfortably fit inside a small living room. One would think that a final year student of electronics engineering would have a fair knowledge of such things. Yet, the sheer size of the machines was beyond the bounds of his imagination. The powerhouse was enough to freak him out. Unfortunately, we didn’t have time to visit the head works. When I told him about it, and the entire hill being clamped to prevent landslides and about the invisible aspects of the project, the tunnels and such, he asked, “So how on earth are we supposed to generate that 25,000 MW?” Frankly, I didn’t have an answer.

From this story, what I am trying to do is paint a picture of the population. If a technical person can’t grasp the significance of 144 MW, how can one expect an average Nepali to grasp the significance of 37,000 MW? Last time, when I was flipping through FM stations, a familiar word caught my attention. On a particular FM station, there was a discussion going on about the Upper Karnali hydel project. It was a sort of talk programme, where they field telephone calls from the audience and have an expert answer their questions. Most of the calls were from local residents. As I tried to understand the mindset of the populace, there was a one particular similarity between the people — almost everyone had a problem with accepting the fact that we needed external investors in the project. They argued that we could undertake the project ourselves with our own money.

Some presented calculations on how we could muster a few tens to hundred millions of rupees by asking each teacher in the Karnali region to contribute a month’s salary. Some argued that they could fund the project by dedicated poultry farming. In short, they believed that such projects could be funded by local resources. I don’t know who fed them such wisdom or how they came up with it, but one thing is clear — they couldn’t perceive the magnitude of the undertaking. One would not be surprised by this realisation. Many people in the region are yet to taste the discoveries of the likes of Edison and Faraday. Those who have seen a hydropower plant probably would have seen a small peltric set generating a few KW. It’s one thing for them to infer that 37,000 or whatever MW could be produced by collecting teachers’ salaries or running poultry farms. But it’s entirely another thing for those at the helm of the nation to blurt out such nonsense one after another.

It’s interesting to see how our leaders have managed to place themselves in a position where they will not be blamed. Have we wondered why all these plans and policies have deadlines in the distant future, like 10 years and 20 years? If after 20 years, 37,000 MW can’t be generated, who would take the responsibility? If recent developments are to be considered, it’s so disheartening to see the government play hopscotch with the ICAO deadline for machine readable passports. If our leaders aren’t serious about such a critical matter, especially one that has international implications and when the fate of millions of people is at stake, how can one expect them to be responsible for deadlines stretched till the next generation?

Now that a new government is in the offing, it would be wise to stick to the previous plan rather than think of a new slogan. If you are thinking of throwing a juicy steak to the public, I have a sincere suggestion. A mission to Mars within the next 50 years wouldn’t be a bad idea either. Who knows, maybe our children would do it, and you can get the credit.

(The author is a final year student of electrical engineering at Kathmandu Engineering College)

peeyusht1@gmail.com



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