E-Kantipur

So the ruling CPN-UML has re-decided to pave the way for a new national government. And beleaguered Premier Madhav Kumar Nepal is ready to be the “facilitator” to help make that happen. As the May 28 deadline to ready the constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal (FDRN) draws closer, the CPN-UML has suggested that the parties get their heads together and reschedule the constitution- and peace-making schedule. By doing so, it has become the first major party to officially declare that it’s just not possible to prepare, finalise and promulgate the new constitution in the next 37 days.

Is that being realistic? But that may sound preposterous to many. The conflict-afflicted Nepali masses may think they have been betrayed. While others may think that it was the right thing to do given the way things are. The largest party in the Constituent Assembly, the UCPN (Maoist), for one, is bent on staging a brand new round of anti-government movement. Already, it has started imparting what it calls “self-defence” training to thousands of youths around the country. In the process, the former rebel party appears to have succeeded in injecting a new wave of fear psychosis among the masses and rival political parties. That may well ignite confrontation and bloodshed.

Hoodwinking?

As Nepal’s four-year-old peace process stands at the brink, another ruling party, the Nepali Congress (NC), too, has pitched for national consensus to address all the issues bedevilling the world’s newest republic. Chiefly, they include integration and rehabilitation of the 19,000 plus Maoist combatants, formation of a state restructuring commission and, based on its recommendations, redrawing the map of the FDRN and forging consensus on all the contentious issues related to writing the constitution. If the parties fail to do so, some NC leaders insist, the parties must get a fresh mandate; hence go for fresh CA elections!

Are the parties ready for that? We doubt they are. In a more realistic scenario, if Premier Nepal steps down, can the parties swiftly cobble together a new national coalition government, a challenging mission if recent experiences are anything to go by? Can they guarantee that it will remain focused on its goal? Most importantly, once back in power, will the Maoists change the way the ruling parties want them to? More specifically, will the Maoists return the land they have “forcibly grabbed” in different places?

Will the Maoists dismantle the paramilitary structure of their controversial youth wing, the Young Communist League (YCL)? Equally important, will the Maoist cooperate in the process of rehabilitation and integration of the 19,000 combatants, who have been enjoying salaries from the donor-funded state coffers for nearly two years? 

Prachanda himself disclosed in the video tape — that was leaked last summer — that the actual combatants numbered around 4,000 at the time of the UN verification, and that his party had succeeded in hoodwinking everybody including the UN. Since the Maoist arms in the lock-up number around 3,500, Premier Nepal has proposed to accommodate around 3,500 Maoist combatants in the national security forces. Agreeing to that is surely not in the Maoists’ political interest. But the sooner the Maoists can make up their mind on the proposal, the sooner the proposal can see the light of day.

Durable peace?

After their attempts to politicise their former enemy the Nepal Army failed nearly a year ago, the Maoists quit the government that they had led. So even if the current government changes now, what guarantee is there that the issue of integration of Maoist combatants into the Army or other security organs will be settled without hurting any party’s sentiments? What guarantee is there that the new breed of Maoist YCL members including those that are being trained now won’t be misled, that they won’t cause further security hassles around the country?

Unless that issue is settled, the law and order situation will not improve, political violence will not end, and peace will continue to elude the Nepali masses. And unless the new constitution is written, the peace process will continue to remain shaky, it will continue to remain in limbo. Riding on the new round of “revolt”, one Maoist leader said his party would get back to power by May 28. That’s the deadline to issue the constitution of the FDRN. 

That means that even if the constitution is not written by the deadline, as Maoist chairman Prachanda said recently, “the sky won’t fall…” Both the prime minister and his party have made it clear by now that the task can’t be finished. So, sooner rather than later, the parties are expected to put their heads together to discuss new schedules for peace- and constitution-making. But again, the once-bitten-twice-shy, unfortunate Nepalis will be sceptical.

Questions galore

And more questions will arise. What guarantee is there that the parties will finish the task by the new deadline this time around? And there are the deep differences between the Maoists and the other parties — on the issues of the judiciary, mode of governance, parliament, power and so forth in the new constitution. Against such a background, how can the parties forge a consensus and move forward? The most important question perhaps is this: Will the FDRN’s constitution be a democratic one?

At a time when ethnicity-oriented politics is seeping deeper and deeper into the roots of the multi-ethnic, multi-racial and multi-religious Nepali society, what guarantee is there that the new constitution will help restore peace and harmony among and between the peoples? What guarantee is there that the crisis of governance will end and Nepal will enter an era of good governance? What guarantee is there that the new constitution won’t be torn up and burnt on the streets?

What guarantee is there that after we have the new constitution, Nepal will achieve lasting peace and begin treading on the path of self-reliance and economic prosperity? I am a layman, a sceptical common Nepali citizen. Let the current government go, but what guarantee is there that the new national government will start performing miracles? Any thoughts?

Surendra Phuyal

nepal.surendra@gmail.com

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